Global cooling includes much more than air-conditioner ownership: it spans cooling access, installed equipment, electricity demand, efficiency, refrigerants, emissions, and protection from dangerous heat. The figures below distinguish observed data, estimates, surveys, and scenario forecasts, with dates and populations stated explicitly.
Key Global Cooling Statistics
The most broadly useful global cooling statistics are:
- In 2022, global cooling capacity was 22 TW, and a business-as-usual projection puts it at 68 TW in 2050 worldwide.
- In 2025, more than 1 billion people lacked adequate cooling worldwide, a broader measure than air-conditioner ownership.
- Without action, the number of people without adequate cooling could reach three times its current level by 2050 under the stated access assumptions.
- Under business as usual, global cooling demand could exceed three times its current level by 2050.
- By 2050, about 66.7% of world households could have an air conditioner in the cited scenario.
- China, India, and Indonesia could hold 50% of global air-conditioner stock in 2050, a stock measure rather than sales.
- In 2019, 15% of Southeast Asian households had an air conditioner in the cited regional estimate.
- In 2018, air conditioners and electric fans used about 10% of global electricity and about one-fifth of building electricity.
- In 2024, more than 40 countries representing nearly 70% of global electricity demand reached heatwave power-peak records.
- Each 1°C increase added more than 7 GW to India’s peak demand in the 2024 analysis, compared with about 4 GW per 1°C in 2019.
- On extremely hot days, space cooling can exceed 70% of peak residential electricity demand in selected Middle Eastern and United States areas.
- Average air-conditioner efficiency sold in 2018 was about 33% of best-available technology in the cited global market assessment.
- Doubling average air-conditioner efficiency could reduce cooling energy demand by 45% through 2050 versus the IEA reference scenario.
- Passive and low-energy cooling account for about 67% of pathway mitigation in 2050 in the cited UNEP model.
- Efficiency improvements and refrigerant transition could avoid 210–460 GtCO2e over approximately four decades worldwide.
- Heat-related mortality among people aged 65 and older increased about 85% between 2000–2004 and 2017–2021.
- Studies covering 2000–2019 estimate about 489,000 heat-related deaths per year worldwide.
- By 2050, about 1.6 billion city residents could face extreme heat in the cited UNEP projection.
Contents
- Global cooling scale and projected demand
- Cooling adoption across households and regions
- Cooling electricity demand and grid pressure
- Efficiency, technology performance and costs
- Cooling emissions, refrigerants and mitigation
- Heat exposure, health and urban cooling
Global Cooling Scale and Projected Demand
The scale of cooling is measured through capacity, demand, access, and emissions. These measures describe different parts of the system and should not be treated as interchangeable.
- The Global Cooling Watch 2025 projects global cooling capacity to rise from 22 TW in 2022 to 68 TW by 2050 under business as usual.
- The same UNEP source projects cooling-related greenhouse-gas emissions to increase from 4.1 Gt CO2 in 2022 to 7.2 Gt CO2 in 2050 under business as usual.
- In its 2025 assessment, UNEP estimated that more than 1 billion people lacked adequate cooling. Adequate cooling is broader than owning an air conditioner.
- Without action, the number of people without adequate cooling could rise to three times the current level by 2050, depending on the baseline and access assumptions.
- The IEA Future of Cooling projects cooling demand to exceed three times its current level by 2050 under business as usual, based on modeled need and access.
- Low-emissions cooling measures could extend cooling access to an additional 3.5 billion people from a 2022 baseline to 2050; this is a model estimate, not a measured outcome.
The UNEP pathway also estimates that its cooling measures could reduce global peak-load demand by 1.5–2 TW and save end-users and the power sector about US$22 trillion. The peak-load coverage refers to UN Member States, while the savings estimate uses a worldwide building-sector boundary.
Cooling Adoption Across Households and Regions
Household ownership is one visible indicator of cooling adoption, but it does not measure whether people have adequate protection from heat. The regional figures below come from different years and source comparisons.
| Geography or group | Period | Cooling adoption or stock measure |
|---|---|---|
| World households | 2050 forecast | 66.7% could have an air conditioner |
| China, India and Indonesia | 2050 forecast | 50% of global AC stock |
| Southeast Asia | 2019 estimate | 15% of households had AC |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 2024 comparison | Around 5% of households had AC |
| India | 2024 comparison | Fewer than 20% of households had AC |
| Brazil | 2024 comparison | Around 30% of households had AC |
| United States | 2020 survey | Two-thirds used central AC or a central heat pump as main AC equipment |
The household forecast and regional comparisons are not directly equivalent: the first is a 2050 scenario, while several others are rounded estimates with the comparison year unspecified. The U.S. figure comes from the EIA’s 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey, which had 18,496 responding households.
The IEA Southeast Asia cooling report projects regional AC stock to grow from 40 million units in 2017 to 300 million in 2040 under stated policies. Indonesia is projected to contain 50% of Southeast Asia’s 2040 AC stock.
Cooling Electricity Demand and Grid Pressure
Cooling demand becomes most visible during heatwaves, when many households and businesses need electricity simultaneously. The figures combine global estimates, country temperature responses, and selected hot-day conditions.
- The IEA estimated that ACs and electric fans accounted for about one-fifth of building electricity and 10% of global electricity in 2018.
- Space-cooling energy demand could exceed three times its current level by 2050 without stronger efficiency action, according to the IEA reference scenario covering 2016–2050.
- In 2024, more than 40 countries representing nearly 70% of global electricity demand reached heatwave power-peak records; other countries experienced outages.
- Nearly 80% of countries in Latin America and the Asia-Pacific either set heatwave peak records or suffered grid disruptions in 2024.
| Location | Temperature-linked peak-demand result | Period or comparison |
|---|---|---|
| India | More than 7 GW per 1°C | IEA 2024 analysis |
| India | About 4 GW per 1°C | 2019 historical comparison |
| Brazil | 3.6 GW per 1°C | 2024 analysis |
| Türkiye | 2 GW per 1°C | 2024 analysis |
India’s annual peak electricity demand rose nearly 40% over the 2019–2024 comparison period, although that change cannot be attributed entirely to air conditioning. In selected Middle Eastern and U.S. areas, space cooling can exceed 70% of peak residential electricity demand on extremely hot days, while cooling averages about 10%–20% of total peak electricity demand globally and in emerging economies such as India and Brazil.
The IEA Global Energy Review 2025 reports that global building electricity consumption increased by more than 600 TWh, or 5%, in 2024; that total includes non-cooling loads.
Cooling Efficiency, Technology Performance and Costs
Efficiency determines how much cooling service is delivered for each unit of electricity. Market averages can differ sharply from the performance of the best products available on shelves.
- The IEA Future of Cooling found that average efficiency of ACs sold was less than 50% of the efficiency typically available on shelves in its 2018 assessment.
- A related IEA comparison put average sold AC efficiency at about 33% of best-available technology; this was not sales-weighted laboratory data.
- Doubling average AC efficiency could reduce cooling energy demand by 45% through 2050 versus the reference scenario.
- The IEA Efficient Cooling Scenario estimates US$3 trillion lower cumulative investment and running costs through 2050 and nearly 50% lower average cooling-energy costs; this is not a forecast of an individual household bill.
The IEA Southeast Asia report gives a global-average pathway of SEER 4.0 in 2018, with targets of 6.0 by 2030 and 8.0 by 2040. These are pathway targets, not observed global averages.
In ASEAN, best available cooling technology was about twice as efficient as the market average in 2018. Analyzed locally manufactured models ranged from at least 3.7 W/W to 5.6 W/W, while the ASEAN SHINE regional minimum-performance commitment was 3.08 W/W CSPF in 2018–2019; the range reflects available models and the commitment does not establish universal compliance.
Cooling Emissions, Refrigerants and Mitigation
Cooling emissions reflect both electricity use and refrigerants. The cited pathways therefore combine efficiency, refrigerant transition, passive design, equipment choices, and power-sector changes.
- UNEP estimates that efficiency improvements plus refrigerant transition could avoid 210–460 GtCO2e over approximately 2020–2060.
- The Sustainable Cooling Pathway could cut 2050 cooling emissions 64% below expected levels, reaching 2.6 Gt CO2.
- With rapid power decarbonization, cooling emissions could fall 97% below business as usual in 2050; that result requires power-sector decarbonization.
- About 67% of pathway mitigation in 2050 comes from passive and low-energy cooling in the cited UNEP model.
- Passive measures could lower indoor temperatures by 0.5°C to 8°C, depending on the measure and climate, and often pay back their costs in 2–8 years.
- Hybrid fan-AC systems can cut energy use by 30%, depending on operation and the building.
- The pathway could reduce projected 2050 cooling-equipment stock by 41% and deliver about US$17 trillion in cumulative energy savings by 2050, both modeled estimates.
The mitigation ranges are potential avoidance or scenario results, not historical totals. The relevant UNEP sources are Global Cooling Watch 2025, In warming world, new report charts how to expand cooling access to all without spiking emissions, and the UNEP Cooling overview.
Heat Exposure, Health and Urban Cooling Outcomes
Cooling statistics also describe the risks that cooling services are intended to reduce. Health estimates measure heat exposure and mortality, not the direct effect of a particular cooling intervention.
- The WHO Heat and health synthesis estimates that heat-related mortality among people over 65 increased about 85% between 2000–2004 and 2017–2021.
- Studies covering 2000–2019 estimate about 489,000 heat-related deaths per year worldwide, with attribution and undercounting uncertainty.
- Asia accounted for 45% and Europe 36% of estimated annual heat-related deaths in those 2000–2019 studies.
- An estimated 61,672 excess heat-related deaths occurred in Europe in summer 2022.
- About 70,000 people in Europe died during the June–August 2003 heat event, a historical cited estimate.
UNEP’s Cooling and Heating in Cities assessment estimates that cities are heating at twice the global average and that about 1.6 billion city residents could face extreme heat by 2050. The rate comparison has an unspecified city-selection and time window, while the resident figure is a projection.
Urban heat islands can raise city temperatures by 5°C to 10°C, varying by city and measurement, according to UNEP’s Global Cooling Watch 2025 summary. A 2024 UNEP brief also estimated that up to 200 million people in India could be exposed to lethal heat waves in the 2030s; this is a broader heat-exposure estimate than a cooling-access measure.