Commercial cooling spans packaged equipment, chillers, heat pumps, district systems, and other technologies serving U.S. commercial buildings. The statistics below cover 2018 survey estimates, 2019–2050 forecasts, global cooling scenarios, and selected chiller case studies with explicit populations, periods, and limitations.
Key Commercial Cooling Statistics
The most broadly useful commercial cooling figures include:
- In 2018, 2,565 thousand U.S. commercial buildings reported packaged air-conditioning units.
- In 2018, 1,309 thousand U.S. commercial buildings reported residential-type central air conditioners.
- In 2018, 735 thousand U.S. commercial buildings reported individual air conditioners.
- In 2018, 202 thousand U.S. commercial buildings reported central chillers.
- In 2018, 492 thousand U.S. commercial buildings reported heat pumps as cooling equipment.
- In 2018, 55 thousand U.S. commercial buildings reported district chilled water.
- In 2018, packaged units served 55% of U.S. commercial buildings with cooling.
- In 2018, packaged units served 66% of air-conditioned buildings in hot or very hot U.S. climate zones.
- In 2018, packaged-unit buildings covered 56,416 million square feet of U.S. commercial floorspace.
- In 2018, commercial buildings with central chillers averaged 88.8 thousand square feet per building.
- In 2018, cooling energy intensity was 14.2 thousand Btu per square foot in hot or very hot U.S. climates.
- In 2018, cooling energy intensity was 2.3 thousand Btu per square foot in cold or very cold U.S. climates.
- In 2018, major fuels used for U.S. commercial cooling totaled 589 trillion Btu.
- In 2018, electricity supplied 98% of major-fuel cooling energy in U.S. commercial buildings.
- In 2018, 31% of U.S. commercial buildings were all-electric, representing 1.8 million buildings.
- From 2019 to 2050, U.S. commercial-building floorspace was projected to expand 34%.
- From 2019 to 2050, warehouse floorspace was projected to expand 43% in the United States.
- From 2019 to 2050, warehouse air-conditioning energy consumption was projected to increase 15%.
- Across three U.S. Navy case-study sites from 2005–2007, magnetic-bearing chiller compressor power savings averaged 49%.
- In a 2005–2007 Newport, Rhode Island Navy project, an 80-ton new-chiller installation saved 227,760 kWh annually and 65% of power.
Contents
- Equipment adoption and commercial building coverage
- System type, floorspace, workers, and operating hours
- Commercial cooling energy by U.S. climate zone
- Electricity, fuels, district cooling, and all-electric buildings
- Commercial cooling trends and 2050 forecasts
- Chiller efficiency, controls, costs, and measured savings
Commercial Cooling Equipment Adoption and Building Coverage
The 2018 Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey (CBECS) provides a nationally representative view of U.S. commercial buildings. Its equipment responses allow more than one equipment type per building, so the categories below are overlapping reported populations rather than a single market-share total. 2018 Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey: Table B1, Summary table
| Cooling equipment reported | U.S. commercial buildings, 2018 | Measurement note |
|---|---|---|
| Packaged air-conditioning units | 2,565 thousand | Estimate; categories can overlap |
| Residential-type central air conditioners | 1,309 thousand | Estimate; categories can overlap |
| Individual air conditioners | 735 thousand | Estimate; categories can overlap |
| Heat pumps used as cooling equipment | 492 thousand | Estimate; categories can overlap |
| Central chillers | 202 thousand | Estimate; categories can overlap |
| Swamp coolers | 85 thousand | Estimate; categories can overlap |
| District chilled water | 55 thousand | Estimate; categories can overlap |
Packaged units were used by 55% of U.S. commercial buildings with cooling in 2018. In hot or very hot climate zones, the share was 66% of air-conditioned buildings, compared with 48% in cold or very cold climate zones; EIA classifies these climate zones using ASHRAE Standard 169-2021. Cooling commercial buildings is six times more energy-intensive in hot climates than cold
Commercial Cooling Data by System Type, Floorspace, and Operating Hours
System presence describes only part of commercial cooling’s scale. The 2018 CBECS estimates also show the floorspace, workers, average building size, and weekly operating hours associated with buildings reporting each equipment category.
| System category | Floorspace, million sq. ft. | Workers, thousand | Mean building size, thousand sq. ft. | Hours per week |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packaged air-conditioning units | 56,416 | 53,368 | 22.0 | 66 |
| Residential-type central air conditioners | 18,437 | 16,384 | 14.1 | 58 |
| Individual air conditioners | 13,767 | 10,038 | 18.7 | 69 |
| Central chillers | 17,910 | 21,736 | 88.8 | 75 |
| Heat pumps | 11,138 | 11,637 | 22.6 | 65 |
| District chilled water | 4,288 | Not reported in supplied measure | Not reported in supplied measure | 73 |
The packaged-unit category covered 56,416 million square feet and represented 53,368 thousand workers. Buildings reporting central chillers were much larger on average, at 88.8 thousand square feet, and operated an average of 75 hours per week, while individual-air-conditioner buildings averaged 69 hours. 2018 Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey: Table B1, Summary table
Because CBECS equipment categories may overlap, floorspace and worker figures should not be added across rows to produce a national total. The estimates describe buildings reporting each equipment type, not mutually exclusive technology segments.
Commercial Cooling Energy Use Across U.S. Climate Zones
Climate affects both the intensity of cooling energy use and the share of a building that receives cooling. In 2018, cooling energy intensity was 14.2 thousand Btu per square foot in hot or very hot U.S. climates, versus 2.3 thousand Btu per square foot in cold or very cold climates.
| U.S. climate grouping | Cooling energy intensity, 2018 | Buildings cooling all floorspace, 2018 | Packaged units among air-conditioned buildings |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hot or very hot | 14.2 thousand Btu/sq. ft. | 52% | 66% |
| Cold or very cold | 2.3 thousand Btu/sq. ft. | 25% | 48% |
EIA calculated the intensity measure from major-fuel cooling consumption divided by floorspace using those fuels. It is a modeled or calibrated end-use estimate, not a direct submeter reading, and the climate-zone comparison follows the supplied ASHRAE-based classification. Cooling commercial buildings is six times more energy-intensive in hot climates than cold
The same source reports that 52% of buildings in hot or very hot climates cooled all floorspace in 2018, compared with 25% in cold or very cold climates. These are survey estimates for the share of buildings, not the share of total floorspace.
Commercial Cooling Electricity, Fuels, District Cooling, and All-Electric Buildings
Major fuels used for U.S. commercial cooling totaled 589 trillion Btu in 2018. The measure includes electricity, natural gas, district heat, and fuel oil covered by CBECS end-use estimates.
Electricity supplied 98% of that major-fuel cooling energy. This percentage applies to the 589 trillion Btu total and should not be read as a separate estimate of every cooling-related energy flow outside the covered CBECS end uses. Cooling commercial buildings is six times more energy-intensive in hot climates than cold
District chilled water was reported in about 55 thousand commercial buildings with cooling, or about 1% of U.S. commercial buildings with cooling, in 2018. The rounded share and building count describe the district-chilled-water population rather than all buildings using centralized cooling. Cooling commercial buildings is six times more energy-intensive in hot climates than cold
All-electric buildings accounted for 31% of U.S. commercial buildings, or 1.8 million buildings, in 2018. EIA’s definition means that only electricity is used for end uses electricity can perform; on-site generation may use other sources, so this is not a claim that every energy input at every site was electricity. 2018 CBECS data related to all-electric buildings
Commercial Cooling Trends and 2050 Forecasts
Forecasts describe scenarios, not observed outcomes. EIA’s AEO2020 Reference case projected total U.S. commercial-building floorspace to expand 34% from 2019 to 2050, creating a larger physical base for future cooling demand. EIA projects air-conditioning energy use to grow faster than any other use in buildings
The AEO2020 Reference case also projected the following commercial-building changes:
- Office buildings were projected to account for 25% of U.S. commercial-sector air-conditioning energy in 2050.
- Warehouse floorspace was projected to expand 43% from 2019 to 2050.
- Warehouse air-conditioning energy consumption was projected to increase 15% over the same period.
The warehouse figures are not a simple one-for-one relationship between floorspace and cooling energy: the supplied EIA limitation notes that cooling intensity varies by building type. The projections should therefore be treated as scenario outputs rather than guaranteed adoption or consumption results.
The IEA’s global figures cover a broader population than U.S. commercial buildings. Its 2018 report baseline estimated that air conditioners and electric fans accounted for about 20% of electricity used in buildings worldwide, while its scenario projected that around two-thirds of the world’s households could have an air conditioner by 2050. The Future of Cooling: Opportunities for energy-efficient air conditioning
That IEA scenario also projected China, India, and Indonesia to account for half of the global air-conditioner stock by 2050. These household and global-building measures should not be substituted for commercial-building adoption rates.
Commercial Chiller Efficiency, Controls, Costs, and Measured Savings
Chiller efficiency evidence in the supplied sources consists of engineering guidance and site-specific case studies, not representative market averages. Three U.S. Navy facilities reported average magnetic-bearing chiller compressor power savings of 49% across 2005–2007, but the result depends on each site and load profile. Magnetic-Bearing Chiller Compressors
| Case-study site and project | Capacity | Annual savings | Power savings | Cost or payback |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego, California retrofit | 240 tons | 176,717 kWh | 40% | $178,787; 8.4-year payback |
| Newport, Rhode Island new chiller | 80 tons | 227,760 kWh | 65% | $100,783; 3.8-year payback |
| Jacksonville, Florida compressor retrofit | 120 tons | 284,407 kWh | 41% | Not supplied |
These Navy results are individual demonstrations from 2005–2007. Their reported tariffs, project assumptions, site conditions, and load profiles mean that the costs and paybacks are not typical commercial cooling prices. Magnetic-Bearing Chiller Compressors
DOE guidance from 2011 estimated that chilled-water reset savings could reach 0.5%–0.75% per degree Fahrenheit with fixed-speed drives and 2.0%–3.0% per degree Fahrenheit with variable-speed drives. Condenser-water reset savings were estimated at 0.75%–1.25% per degree Fahrenheit with fixed-speed drives and 1.5%–2.0% per degree Fahrenheit with variable-speed drives.
The same guidance estimated that variable-speed drives could reduce cooling-delivery-system energy use by 30%–50%, depending on load profile. These are technology guidance ranges rather than universal measured outcomes. Hospitals Benefit by Improving Inefficient Chiller Systems
A Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center case study in New York projected $486,500 in annual energy-cost savings over baseline during 2006–2009. The implementation received a $598,000 NYSERDA grant in 2008–2009; both figures are project-specific, and neither is a sector-wide commercial cooling average. Hospitals Benefit by Improving Inefficient Chiller Systems